Picks against spread for every Sunday game

Publish date: 2024-08-17
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Isn’t that the luck? Just as this column is finally figuring out how to pick some winners — going a nice 11-5 — we get to the dreadful Week 18 when teams are resting stars, tanking or not tanking for draft picks, and subject to other motivations you’ve probably never thought about. 

The first game on our board is Jets in Foxborough. New England has won 15 games in a row in this matchup, including a few in the past two seasons when the Jets seemed to come in as the more talented team.

I’m pretty certain the Jets will be playing this at full throttle. GM Joe Douglas and coach Robert Saleh already have been told they will be back next season, and I believe they’ll think it’s important to the team’s development to at least match last year’s 7-10 record in a season that was built around Aaron Rodgers and quickly fell at his feet.

I also believe they are desperate to end this seemingly forever skid vs. the Patriots to remove it as a negative talking point next season. I don’t think they’re obsessing about next year’s first-round pick that currently sits at No. 8 and could sink to 11 or possibly 12 with a win Sunday and some other results.

The Patriots’ motivation isn’t as clear. Will Bill Belichick be back? If not, does he care to leave Robert Kraft the highest possible pick (it’s No. 3 now and could go up or down)? Is the Hoodie still fervently chasing the all-time regular-season wins mark (Don Shula 328, George Halas 318, Belichick 302)? 

The injury report might be the best indicator for this game. The Jets still have most of their best players healthy (Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Sauce Gardner, Quinnen Williams), while the Patriots will be without Rhamondre Stevenson, JuJu Smith-Schuster and possibly others.

The pick (heaven help us!): Jets +1.5. 

NEW YORK GIANTS (+4.5) over Philadelphia Eagles

It’s a scoreboard-watching situation for the Eagles. They’ve already clinched the top NFC wild card (fifth seed), and can take the NFC East and the second seed with a win and a Cowboys loss at Washington. But what happens when they see “DAL 21, WSH 3” on the MetLife scoreboard at around 5 p.m.? 

A part of me is suspicious Nick Sirianni will go full bore just to try to get his team back on the beam. The Eagles are 1-4 in their past five games with the one win being that non-cover against the Giants on Christmas Day. But more likely he’d get his ailing players out of the game and take Jalen Hurts out of harm’s way.

The Giants currently have the fifth pick in the draft and likely are looking at the top quarterbacks. So a loss would help in that regard. But I believe Brian Daboll is keeping his job, and he (and John Mara) will not want to end the season at 5-12 with a four-game losing streak. But this is a tricky pick all the way around.

Sunday

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3) over Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta is 7-9 but can steal the NFC South with a win over the 8-8 Saints coupled with a loss by the 8-8 Bucs (to the 2-14 Panthers). If the Saints win, they get at least a wild-card berth. I’ve thrown a lot of records at you, but the one that might matter most is the Falcons are 2-6 on the road.

CINCINNATI BENGALS (-7) over Cleveland Browns

Initially I was thinking Kevin Stefanski might shoot for the Browns’ first 12-win season since 1986, but his choice of Jeff Driskel to start at quarterback (not P.J. Walker, who has won a few games) makes it clear this is all about resting the stars, some of whom have dings, and focusing on the playoff run.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5) over TENNESSEE TITANS

Jags are going for the AFC South clincher with Trevor Lawrence likely back after missing last week with a shoulder injury. Not sure why this line dropped two points on Thursday afternoon, but it’s down to where I can support the road favorites.

Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) over DETROIT LIONS

Detroit is all but locked into the No. 3 seed in the NFC. Wonder how long Dan Campbell will go with Jared Goff and the other stars. Nick Mullens is back behind center for the Vikings, and he threw for 411 yards vs. the Lions two weeks ago.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5) over CAROLINA PANTHERS

The Bucs won the first meeting, 21-18, in Tampa on Dec. 3, so maybe that’s the reason for the smallish spread. They’d been piling up the points before last week’s 23-13 loss to the Saints, but Baker Mayfield will right the pirate ship with the NFC South title as the prize.

Dallas Cowboys (-13) over WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

Cowboys have been outscored by 22 points in going 1-2 in the past three games. But with the NFC East crown for the taking, Dak Prescott & Co. shouldn’t have any problem with a foe that has lost seven in a row and 12 of 14. First meeting was 45-10 at Jerry World on Thanksgiving.

Los Angeles Rams (+4) over SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Niners are still favored despite being locked into the No. 1 seed in the NFC, and having announced Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey will not play. Rams still have No. 6/7 seed to determine but will start Carson Wentz in place of Matthew Stafford. Wentz is rusty but will have some fun weapons to utilize.

Chicago Bears (+3) over GREEN BAY PACKERS

Packers get the NFC sixth seed with a win, but the Bears come in hot. They are 4-1 around a three-point loss in Cleveland, three of the wins by double digits.

ARIZONA CARDINALS (+3) over Seattle Seahawks

Seattle will have an eye on the scoreboard as it needs a win and a Packers loss to make the playoffs. Though that’s quite feasible, there’s also a chance the ’Hawks can lose motivation. Cards are a great spoiler coming off a 35-31 win at Philly.

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (-2.5) over Denver Broncos

Raiders are 6-1-1 ATS in the eight games of the Antonio Pierce regime. Both teams are out of contention, but this could still be a fun game to watch.

Betting on the NFL?

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-3.5) over Kansas City Chiefs

Chargers might have had the most disgraceful 2023 season of any team, but they have a chance to save some face as Andy Reid has declared this game meaningless. Blaine Gabbert will start for Patrick Mahomes, and many of the Chiefs’ weapons will be on the sideline with the State Farm pitchman.

Buffalo Bills (-3) over MIAMI DOLPHINS

Battle for the AFC East is in Miami, but according to Vivid Seats, the crowd will be at least 52 percent Buffalo fans. Sean McDermott likely learned a lot how Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs can attack the Dolphins’ flaws in Baltimore’s 56-19 beatdown of the Fish. 

Best bets: Bills, Saints, Cowboys
Lock of the week: Bills (Locks 4-12-1 in 2023)
Last week: 11-5-0 overall, 1-2 Best Bets

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